By: Matt Mcbride

Since the arrival of its first case into the United States, which has been estimated to be as early as mid-December 2019, public discourse on the SARS-2 virus has unfortunately devolved from the scientific to the soundbite. As is evident from the array of conflicting mitigations enacted by the States and localities, this dangerous virus has for the better part of a year failed to be discussed in a rational manner that is supported by the established public health science.

Known also by the disease condition it causes, COVID-19, this virus has sadly opened a political fault line which should never occur during the exigency of a public health emergency when the lives of so many are at risk. Culpability for this politicization falls across the public, the media, all levels of government, with members of each aligning their views on a virus to their political belief systems. Unfortunately, this politicization of COVID-19 has caused fear and seeded suspicion among neighbors, and promoted a distrust in our health institutions that may take many years to dispel.

COVID-19 Response

This paper has been compiled so that the next public health emergency may be considered less on a political base and more on the solid foundation of the principles of public health science that have been established and tested for almost 200 years. To the discredit of the nation’s public health establishment, much of what is discussed in this paper has received little to none of the attention that otherwise, had it been pronounced to the public and political leaders, could have alleviated needless fear and calmed many people into returning to their normal lives.

The following established public health principles are presented and explained in this paper as they apply to the SARS-2 virus. Where relevant, these principles are demonstrated mathematically:

  • Farr’s Law is the prevailing scientific law of epidemic spread and mandates that the course of an epidemic as plotted by its cases or deaths against time must follow an approximate bell-shaped curve. The peak of Farr’s bell-shaped curve, commonly referred to as the Surge Event, is the point of herd immunity. Farr’s curve may be plotted with either cases or deaths due to the inherent proportionality of deaths to cases. As a law of nature, Farr’s Law is involatile, and apparent violations of Farr’s Law indicates problems within policies and procedures surrounding data collection and reporting, errors in data collection or analysis, or data fraud.
  • The base reproduction ratio, denoted as R0, is the number of people one infected person can infect in a perfectly infectable population. For COVID-19, this number is about 2.5: one person with COVID-19 can on average cause 2.5 other people to become infected. This number is a critical piece of information that allows for the calculation, prediction, and observation within the data, from several perspectives, of the herd immunity threshold. Additionally, nowhere within the herd immunity threshold formula is there a variable for a vaccine, showing that contrary to various public statements, herd immunity is not dependent on a vaccine.
  • The herd immunity threshold is precisely calculated using R0 through the formula 1-(1/R0). Herd immunity is also described as the point when R0 falls below 1.0 – one person infects fewer than one other person – and the pandemic mathematically eliminates itself out. For any virus, a predicted date of herd immunity can be established using the herd immunity threshold formula, case fatality rate, and estimates of population size, the virus’ infectious period, base reproduction ratio (R0), and date of first known infection. The predicted herd immunity threshold can also be aligned to observations on the graphs of the hospital occupancy rate and the case fatality rate. Together, these pieces allow the date of herd immunity to be established fairly accurately. Using this process, it is demonstrated within this paper that COVID-19 herd immunity predictions and observations all align to the second week of May 2020; and the “second COVID wave” mathematically fits the profile of an average influenza virus peaking at the third week of January 2021, the curve for which has been “flattened” most likely by the influenza vaccine.
  • Mathematically, there are no realistic scenarios wherein SARS-2 could be considered “highly contagious” while taking almost 19 months to reach herd immunity. Such a scenario would include requiring a US population size of 6.5E+30 people. Other scenarios result in SARS-2 being extremely non-infectious with a doubling period of 27.6 days, or having a herd immunity threshold of only 6%. Otherwise, the extreme latest date that the SARS-2 virus under all current conditions could reach herd immunity within the US population is October 27, 2020, past which point a pandemic becomes mathematically eliminated.
  • As the Surge Event increases cases, hospital occupancy rates must increase proportionally. However, at no time during the SARS-2 pandemic did the hospital occupancy rate exceed the 85% to 90% “financial sweet spot” for hospitals. Hospitals therefore admitted and released patients with positive COVID-19 tests not based on the Medicare standard of “medical necessity,” but rather in ways that allowed them to reap a maximum financial return.
  • The curve of the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) demonstrates that the mitigations of social distancing and mask use did not function to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and were thus ineffective. Additionally, the federal government’s after-action report for the H1N1 pandemic notes that masks are ineffective if they are not rated for viruses, if they are not fit-tested to the individual wearer, and if the wearer is not trained to use the mask.
  • Change in policies surrounding COVID-19 testing resulted in the propagation of the incorrect narrative that COVID-19 was devastating the population. This narrative is not supported by either the observed curves of the CFR or the hospital occupancy rate.
  • The federal H1N1 after-action report states there is a six-month window after the initial detection of a pandemic virus for the development and deployment of an effective vaccine to have any impact on the Surge Event. The introduction of a COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020, seven months after this window closed in approximately May 2020, means that these vaccines have failed to materially reduce any deaths or injuries associated to the virus.






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