MUST READ: Farr’s Law Governs the Course of Epidemics

Farr’s Law dictates that the rise and fall of an epidemic as graphed by cases or deaths across time will approximate a bell-shaped curve.,,,, This approximate bell-shaped curve is the “Curve” referred to in the slogan “Flatten the Curve.” As with all scientific laws (gravity, motion, thermodynamics, etc.), Farr’s Law is involatile: due to epidemics’ inherent mathematical spread, an approximate bell-shaped curve will appear regardless of any efforts to mitigate a virus.

Mitigations applied to a population may reduce the slope of the curve (i.e., “flatten” it), or shorten the length of the curve, but as per Farr’s Law an approximate bell-shaped curve of deaths or cases will appear regardless.

Farr’s Law allows either cases or deaths to be plotted against time due to the inherent proportionality of deaths to cases for any disease condition. That is, a certain proportion of disease cases may be expected to result in deaths. This inherent proportionality is a cornerstone of our modern health sciences and its research efforts, and allows physicians to recommend risk-based treatment options to their patients.

This graphic shows how Farr’s bell-shaped curve occurred across four radically different nations: the US, Denmark, Italy, and China. These nations are vastly different in their population sizes, cultures, governing philosophies, land area, health systems, and when they instituted common mitigations. However, as a law of nature, Farr’s Law held primacy and still produced its bell-shaped curve despite these nations’ differences.

The Surge Event Leads Up to the Point of Herd Immunity

As a “bell curve,” Farr’s law dictates an epidemic will have a single peak. This peak and the period of time leading to it are also referred to as the Surge Event. The Surge Event and its impact on hospitals and the US health system are described in detail within the federal government’s June 2012 after-action report for the H1N1 pandemic of 2009 to 2010, An HHS Retrospective on the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic to Advance All Hazards Preparedness. As the prior novel pandemic, the federal government sought to capitalize on its H1N1 response for future pandemics by documenting within the report certain principles of pandemic spread and pandemic response.

The federal H1N1 pandemic report shows the primary obstacle of responding to a novel pandemic virus to be the Surge Event. The Surge Event is the time leading up to and including the peak of the epidemic when the greatest number of infected people are seeking hospital-level care at one time.

As a result of increased cases, the Surge Event overwhelms hospitals and forces health workers to begin splitting their time between more patients. As the face-to-face time between patients and providers begins to reduce, the proportion of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases begins to increase.

As more cases occur and more people seek hospital-level care, the Surge Event for a novel pandemic virus will be reflected in the hospital occupancy rate. Hospital occupancy rates will rise in proportion to the cases in the community.

The H1N1 pandemic report also discusses how the Surge Event will create a very limited period of time in which effective mitigations may be developed and put into place. Mitigations that arrive past the peak of the Surge Event will fail to materially reduce deaths and injuries. For influenza, this period of time is about six months between initial detection of the novel pandemic virus and the Surge Event. For SARS-2, which spreads roughly 40% faster, this time for preparation is even less.

As per the federal H1N1 after-action report, and given the initial detection of cases in the US to be around mid-December 2019, the window of time for the development and distribution of effective mitigations would have closed in May 2020. Therefore, even if effective, mitigations delivered past the time of May 2020 will have failed to materially prevent any deaths and injuries associated with the virus.

–

THIS IS PART TWO OF THE MATT MCBRIDE SERIES DETAILING THE FALSEHOODS AND DELUSIONS OF MAINSTREAM MEDIA SCIENCE.

PLEASE SHARE THIS ARTICLE WITH AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE. ALSO CHECK OUT PART ONE!

–

CHECK OUT THIS INTERVIEW WITH MATT FROM THE TROY SMITH SHOW WHERE HE DETAILS THIS REPORT.

SHARE AND SPREAD THE WORD, BIG TECH IS CENSORING US LIKE NEVER BEFORE!

THE TRUTH IS AT LAUNCH LIBERTY!