All science is based on predictions. If it cannot be predicted, it’s not science. This leads us into the video interview I did with Troy Smith wherein I said that the delta variant fits the profile for influenza.
Luckily, public health is a science with established rules and laws. As per Farr’s Law and the herd immunity threshold formula 1-(1/R0), the course of any epidemic can be predicted.
I was able to use this science to accurately align the herd immunity prediction with the observations for both the true COVID wave of early 2020…
…and to show that the “second COVID wave” was actually influenza.
Of course, what I did there was not “predicted,” because a prediction must come before the observation. You can’t “retroactively predict” something, so what I did in those two instances was lend supporting evidence to my assertions.
So lets “predict” when the delta variant will peak for the entire United States.
But before I do, note that influenza is a year-round virus. It’s just not as prevalent during the summer months because the heat and humidity kills it. Similarly, H1N1 was getting people sick in the United States during the spring and summer of 2009, but it wasn’t able to really break out the fall when the weather cooled.
This will be a rough guess because of two factors:
First, my case numbers from which I derived R0 come from NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins’ statement on “Your World with Neil Cavuto.” At the beginning of August Dr. Collins said that nationally, cases went from 13,000 to 40,000 in “a few weeks.” I assume a “few weeks” means 14 days. When I crunched the numbers, I ended up with an R0 of 1.5 – suspiciously, this is about the average R0 for influenza. In any event, as 1.5 is considerably less than what we’re being told is an R0 of up to 8 for the “highly infectious delta strain,” Dr. Collins is spreading around some fertilizer somewhere.
Second, some quick research gave me an estimated date of first known infection of about May 20, 2020. In reality, this is just when the first person became sick enough to decide he or she needed to see a doctor. The actual first infection would have been some unknown time before this.
Thankfully, we are helped out by the foundational principle of probability, the Law of Large Numbers. In a large enough sample, these estimates (and others we don’t know about) cancel out. With a national population of 330 million, we’re far beyond the mere 602 people that are needed to return an estimate with a 95% confidence level (there’s a formula for that, too).
So plugging in R0 of 1.5 and a date of first infection of May 20,2020 (along with the average infectious period of six days)…
…if the delta variant is flu, we have a predicted date for cases to peak of around September 3, 2021. This peak is the herd immunity threshold.
Let’s stand back and see what happens!
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CHECK OUT THE LATEST EPISODE OF THE TROY SMITH SHOW FEATURING AN INTERVIEW WITH SENIOR HEALTH POLICY EXPERT MATT MCBRIDE! HE EXPOSES THE DELTA SCAM!
SHARE AND SPREAD THE WORD, BIG TECH IS CENSORING US LIKE NEVER BEFORE!
THE TRUTH IS AT LAUNCH LIBERTY!
